Analyzing the Innovative Strategy Against Nikola Jokic

Did you catch last night’s Kings-Nuggets game? Nikola Jokic did, too. The three-time MVP struggled in one of his season’s poorest performances against the Kings, who were both underwhelming and undermanned. Jokic worked his way to 22 points, 15 rebounds, but also had seven turnovers and a disappointing minus-seven. Since the All-Star break, Jokic has faced challenges by his outstanding standards, largely due to opposing coaches adopting a comedic but effective approach pioneered by Lakers coach JJ Redick during a commanding victory over Denver two weeks ago. This tactic is straightforward: keep the ball away from Jokic at all costs, even if it means compromising your entire defensive structure. It defies almost every modern defensive principle, yet it’s getting results.

In action, this is what the strategy looked like versus Sacramento. In the clip below, Jake LaRavia’s sole mission is blocking Jokic while Markelle Fultz and DeMar DeRozan hang back, maintaining around 10 feet of space from Peyton Watson and Russell Westbrook to double-team Jokic the moment he gains possession. Strategies like “Make the rest of the team beat you!” are frequently uttered but rarely does a defense contort itself so significantly. The Kings had all five players clustered in the paint for the play’s duration, and Westbrook played into their hands with a poorly-chosen midrange jumper.

When Jokic does manage to secure the ball, defenders are quick to lock in on the key, ready to spring a double- or even triple-team. Filling the paint, they aim to stop him from using the easy flip shots and half hooks that foil most defenders, block the swift interior passes to the dunker spot offering easy points, and ignore the three-point line entirely. Although the Nuggets boast the third-best three-point shooting percentage in the league, they attempt the fewest threes per game. This is mainly due to Jokic’s effectiveness at creating opportunities under the rim.

This defense is a drastic overcorrection aimed at removing the Nuggets’ top offensive option, and it’s proven effective for the three teams committed to it. Observe the immense pressure Jokic endures here, with all Lakers’ defenders keyed in on him.

This method extends the previously accepted strategy of guarding Jokic: using a power forward, leaving the center to step in if needed. Redick discussed this very plan and its drawbacks with LeBron James on their podcast last season. However, when the Nuggets faced the Lakers two weeks ago, Redick treated it like a playoff scenario, pushing the tactic to the extreme. Denver, ranked just above L.A. in the standings and holding 13 wins from their last 14 confrontations, was unprepared for Redick’s plan, resulting in Jokic shooting 2-for-7 during the game.

This past Sunday, Boston employed a similar tactic with success, holding Jokic to 20 points and preventing him from getting to the free-throw line. On Wednesday night, the Kings retained the lead for much of the game until their offense faltered late and allowed the Nuggets 13 free throws in the final quarter. If Denver believed that Redick’s anti-Jokic tactic was only impactful against top-tier teams, their encounter with Sacramento painted a stark picture: if the Kings can disrupt Denver’s offense so effectively, any NBA team might do the same.

The Redick plan has a glaring flaw: it grants extensive space to everyone else on the Denver roster. The Nuggets’ offensive framework revolves around Jokic, and the team appears unprepared to counter this approach or to fully capitalize on the open shots available to the other players.

Denver head coach Michael Malone often defaults to “play better defense” when questioned about tactical adjustments, and he’s partly right. It becomes more challenging for foes to stack the paint if the Nuggets capitalize on missed shots and turnovers, coupled with their notably high pace—the fifth-fastest in the NBA. While boosting defensive efforts may prove effective during regular-season matchups, it’s an unreliable tactic come playoff time.

The intrigue of Redick’s scheme lies in its risky nature: should the Nuggets decide to adopt such a shot setup, skilled shooters like Michael Porter Jr. and the in-form Jamal Murray could anticipate around a dozen uncontested threes each game. The Nuggets could also experiment with pulling Jokic out of the paint and engage in more orthodox pick-and-roll actions to get him moving with the ball, a tactic already used during crucial moments. While it may be inconvenient to alter your offensive identity this late in the season, Denver must seize the chance to adjust before elite Western Conference defenses potentially stifle them in the playoffs.