Asteroid YR4: Assessing Potential Impact Risks for 2032

While asteroid YR4 boasts a strikingly low 97% probability of completely missing Earth, the 3.1% risk of collision marks it as the most likely threat among sizeable space objects detected to date. This percentage has eclipsed the initial forecasts for Apophis, which alarmed scientists upon its 2004 discovery with similarly concerning odds of impact.

Thankfully, the YR4 asteroid measures between 130 and 300 feet, significantly smaller than the enormous, cruise ship-sized Apophis. Consequently, should the unlikely scenario of it striking Earth occur, the resulting damage would be substantially less catastrophic.

Originally, predictions concerning YR4 indicated just above a 1% chance of hitting Earth on December 22, 2032. However, analysis of its trajectory over time has seen this probability climb to an unprecedented 3.1%, underscoring the necessity of continued observation and assessment.