BNP Paribas Open: Match Previews and Predictions
Before the action kicks off at the BNP Paribas Open, let’s dive into three exciting matchups you won’t want to miss.
Carlos Alcaraz vs. Denis Shapovalov
Alcaraz boasting an 11-2 record at the start of Indian Wells comes as no shock to tennis aficionados. However, Shapovalov sporting a 10-4 record might turn a few heads, especially since the Canadian had started the year barely within the Top 60 and had plummeted to 140 by 2024.
Recently, Shapovalov has found his groove, clinching a title in Dallas, reaching a semifinal in Acapulco, and defeating Top 20 players like Ruud, Fritz, Paul, and Machac. Shapovalov can swing between cold and hot streaks, but when he’s on fire, his shot-making is unmatched. Whether it’s his skillful lefty serves or powerful backhands, he can impress.
On Monday, Shapovalov will challenge Alcaraz, another skilled shot-maker who’s been more successful lately. Their last encounter was two years ago at Roland Garros, where Alcaraz emerged victorious in straight sets. Now on the slow hard courts of Indian Wells—courts Alcaraz relishes even more—these two will face each other again. Will Shapovalov’s recent momentum suffice to take on Alcaraz? At 25, he still has plenty of time to make a mark. Winner: Alcaraz
Coco Gauff vs. Maria Sakkari
Despite her superior ranking and consistent track record, Coco Gauff should be the clear favorite on paper, sitting at No. 3 in the world and reaching semifinals or better at four Slams over the past seasons. Meanwhile, Sakkari, ranked 29th, hasn’t pushed past the third round at a major since 2022.
Yet, there are nuances to this matchup. Sakkari leads their head-to-head 5-3, winning their most recent encounter at Indian Wells last year. Additionally, Sakkari has performed well at this tournament, making the finals twice in three years. Meanwhile, Gauff faced challenges in February and struggled against Moyuka Uchijima, nearly losing after 21 double faults.
Sakkari hasn’t had a perfect run herself, losing in the first round of her last two events. It seems like Gauff should eventually break her slump, occasionally pulling through challenging matches, but for this one, it seems Sakkari might extend Coco’s wait for a comeback. Winner: Sakkari
Gael Monfils vs. Grigor Dimitrov
These two veterans bring both entertainment and skill to the court—Monfils at 38 and Dimitrov at 34. While Monfils remains an acrobatic wonder, Dimitrov’s elegant style now echoes that of a more refined Federer.
Experiencing a renaissance, Monfils recently became the oldest ATP titleholder since 1990, while Dimitrov made a comeback by re-entering the Top 10 last year.
Their head-to-head favors Monfils, 4-2, although Dimitrov claimed victory in their latest faceoff at Wimbledon last summer.
Monfils had a strong first-round win over Sebastian Korda this weekend, though consistency has often eluded him, and Dimitrov, despite a slow season start at 3-4 before Indian Wells, has previously enjoyed success here with semifinal and quarterfinal appearances.
Predicting this winner is tricky and could truly go either way. Winner: Monfils