March Madness 2025: Betting Insights and Surprises

Selection Sunday has come and gone, unveiling the 2025 NCAA tournament bracket, signaling the arrival of March Madness. The bracket announcement was not without its twists—Indiana missed out, whereas North Carolina barely made the First Four and is favored by four points against San Diego State. Yet, the spotlight for us today is on the betting buzz and noteworthy narratives emerging from the initial odds.

Let’s dive into three standout stories following the bracket unveiling and as sportsbooks revealed their Round 1 odds:

No Dominant Contender Emerges

This year, the Auburn Tigers hold the title of No. 1 overall seed as per the selection committee. However, it’s the Florida Gators who lead as betting favorites with +350 odds to clinch the championship at BetMGM, trailed by the No. 1-seeded Duke Blue Devils (+360), Auburn (+400), and Houston (+600). Meanwhile, two-time reigning champion UConn, a No. 8 seed, stands at 50-1 odds to defend their title at BetMGM.

Both Duke and Auburn share a +350 odds for the championship at DraftKings Sportsbook. Across various national and Las Vegas sportsbooks, the Blue Devils often emerge as the top choice. Houston, boasting the highest power rating per Bart Torvik, faces competition from KenPom’s top-ranked team, Duke.

In conversations with three oddsmakers on Sunday evening, all rated Duke as their top team, with one viewing Duke as a 3.5-point favorite over the second-ranked Florida on a neutral site.

Notably, a striking futures bet has appeared with $100,000 placed on Florida at +900 odds at BetMGM.

Past Outcomes Should Guide But Not Dictate

Reflecting on last year, favorites achieved an 18-13-1 record against the spread in the opening round, with eight instances of lower-seeded teams closing as favorites. This year is different, with only two such games in the initial lines: No. 12 Colorado State (-2.5) against No. 5 Memphis, and No. 9 Baylor (-1.5) versus No. 8 Mississippi State. Notably, by Sunday evening, the Baylor-Mississippi State betting had shifted to even at multiple Las Vegas locations.

Early Insights from the Sharps

Sunday night is renowned for its March Madness odds movements, with sportsbooks setting lines at varied times and offering generous limits. I checked in with Chris Andrews, sportsbook director at the South Point, who shared five matchups that experienced sharp bettor interest, prompting line adjustments:

• No. 14 Montana shifted from +23 to +16 against No. 3 Wisconsin
• No. 15 Omaha moved from +21 to +18 against No. 2 St. John’s
• No. 13 Yale adjusted from +10 to +7.5 against No. 4 Texas A&M
• No. 14 UNC-Wilmington shifted from +18 to +15 against No. 3 Texas Tech
• No. 8 UConn moved from -2 to -4.5 against No. 9 Oklahoma