March Madness: A Season of Exceptional Offenses and Elite Competition
Welcome to March, the month when college basketball takes center stage. This season, men’s college basketball has been characterized by unprecedented offensive prowess, with teams scoring at record rates. Additionally, there’s notable depth among top-tier teams. If the statistics turn out to be accurate, this year’s NCAA Tournament could be one of the most thrilling on record. Personally, I love thrilling upsets, but there’s nothing quite like watching top teams advance to later stages, bringing exciting, high-caliber matchups.
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Here’s the compelling data: Five teams currently have a plus-30 in Ken Pomeroy’s net ratings—which measure adjusted offensive efficiency against adjusted defensive efficiency—and 11 teams are at plus-26. Both figures set records for the first Monday of March.
Since 2000, there are select seasons that most closely compare in each category for this point in March. The third column reflects where that year’s eventual champion ranked on KenPom then.
A common thread across those successful seasons? The champion was a No. 1 seed.
If we trust this data, the next champion will emerge from the current KenPom top eight and likely be a No. 1 seed. Contenders with a strong shot at snagging a No. 1 spot within that top eight include Duke, Auburn, Houston, Florida, Tennessee, and Alabama. Texas Tech, ranking at No. 7 on KenPom, could be a sleeper candidate for a top seed if they win out.
Note: After my Top 25, I provide insights on a varying number of teams weekly. If a team appears in the table but not below, that’s why. Continue scrolling for updates on Auburn, Florida, Tennessee, Michigan State, Iowa State, Saint Mary’s, and Oregon.
Nine days ago, Oregon managed what might become a crucial seed-line victory against Wisconsin, clawing back from a 14-point deficit with just over six minutes remaining, despite being at a mere 1% win probability.
The Ducks orchestrated this turnaround by focusing on Nate Bittle, whose involvement has surged during their current five-game win streak. Originally a high-seed recruit, Bittle, a five-star prospect, has faced injury setbacks but is proving to be one of the nation’s toughest centers and a key player for Oregon’s top triumphs. Over the winning streak, he’s averaged 17.6 points on 12.8 shots per game.