Pope Francis passed away on Monday, ushering the Catholic Church into an uncertain era he had endeavored to prepare it for. As cardinals are called to Rome for the conclave to choose his successor, they must decide whether Francis’ vision of a compassionate, inclusive church is still appropriate or if a different approach, more focused on the core tenets of the Christian faith, is necessary.
Before the conclave convenes, the cardinals will spend up to two weeks in Rome debating what qualities the next pope should possess for both the church and the broader world. During these discussions, they will pose the question, “Who among us?” Only after these deliberations will the 135 cardinals eligible to vote, all under the age of 80, gather in the Sistine Chapel in seclusion to cast their votes.
The cardinals will be acutely aware of the world’s current landscape. In the concluding months of Francis’ reign, the Western world appeared to be fracturing, and the post-World War II international order was under pressure. Today, the world seems like a jungle where might prevails, with powerful entities like the United States, China, and Russia aggressively asserting their sovereignty and often disregarding smaller nations. Additionally, the cardinals will observe the social decay within several countries, marked by the erosion of civility and the rise of nationalist populism fueled by anger and resentment. They will also witness escalating violence and the looming threat of further conflict.
They must ponder what these global challenges demand from the church and the papacy.
While many cardinals are concerned about the threats to democracy and the rule of law, they are unlikely to lament the demise of the liberal order, which they might associate with excessive individualism and the glorification of market forces. Instead, they might criticize Western liberalism for engendering significant social inequalities, privatizing morality, undermining institutions, and ignoring the common good.
Many cardinals, traditionally empathetic to the working class, share the frustrations of ordinary people who see the system as benefiting the educated and wealthy at the expense of the working poor. This is especially true in Africa, Asia, and Latin America, regions that contribute nearly half of the electorate, where many cardinals view market-driven globalization with disdain. They feel that Western liberal values have been imposed globally, eroding trust, tradition, community, and family ties.
Meanwhile, few cardinals are likely to be swayed by rising nationalist leaders who drape themselves in symbols of nation and faith. Figures like Donald Trump and Elon Musk may be seen by many as nihilists skilled at dismantling rather than constructing. The disdain for migrants and disregard for environmental stewardship—issues that were central to Catholic social teachings under Francis, who appointed 80% of the electors—will likely be met with disapproval. The cardinals might view the emergence of authoritarianism as evidence that the state no longer curbs what St. Augustine termed the “libido dominandi”—the lust for domination—but instead celebrates it in the hands of autocrats.