Severe Thunderstorms and Tornado Threat Loom over Central and Eastern U.S.

Unseasonably warm weather is creating ideal conditions for severe thunderstorms that could unleash strong winds, large hail, and tornado activity, affecting nearly 175 million people across the central and eastern United States this Sunday and Monday.

This March has already witnessed a series of intense storms, resulting in more tornado reports compared to the same time last year. Regions recently battered by deadly storms could once again face the threat of powerful thunderstorms. Although this weekend’s forecast may not be as extreme, the possibility of rapid escalation means millions remain at risk.

As the weekend begins, temperatures across the Plains to the East Coast will feel more akin to late spring. However, as a significant storm and cold front converge in the central U.S., these springlike conditions will be replaced by a widespread outbreak of severe weather.

Severe thunderstorms, capable of producing damaging winds and hail, could emerge Saturday night, particularly from Kansas and Missouri stretching to Iowa. But the primary and more hazardous threat of severe weather will evolve on Sunday once the storm strengthens fully.

Anticipated Weather Events for the Upcoming Days

Possible Strong Tornadoes on Sunday

A cold front reaching from the Midwest to the southern Plains on Sunday will replace the temporary late-spring warmth covering the eastern U.S. As chilly air advances, it will clash with the warm, moist air, triggering explosive thunderstorms where the two meet.

According to the Storm Prediction Center (SPC), more than 25 million people are at a level 3 of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms on Sunday. Major cities like Nashville, Indianapolis, and St. Louis fall within this high-risk zone. Additionally, around 45 million people are under a level 2 of 5 risk in adjacent areas, including Dallas, Chicago, and Cleveland.

Storms are expected to initiate late Sunday afternoon from Illinois to eastern Texas, intensifying as they spread eastward into the evening and through the night, affecting the Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee valleys.

The SPC anticipates very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes. Conditions could favor long-lived, particularly intense tornadoes, rated EF2 or higher.

Most dangerous storms are predicted to occur after dark, which doubles the risk of fatalities compared to daytime tornadoes, according to a 2022 study.

Certain areas may experience torrential rains leading to flash flooding, stretching from the South to the Midwest.

Even as severe weather season’s peak is still forthcoming, this year has been notoriously busy for tornado activity. Approximately 300 tornado reports have been registered since the beginning of 2025, matching 164 by the end of March 2024. Since 2010, only 2023, 2017, and 2013 saw more tornadoes in the year’s first quarter.

Last year experienced a tornado surge later in spring continuing into December, logging nearly 2,000 tornado reports in all— making it the second highest on record after 2017.

Monday Threatens 100 Million with Severe Storm Risk

With Monday’s dawn, intense thunderstorms from Sunday could extend from the Appalachians down to Louisiana and Mississippi.

Though some of these storms may weaken slightly at daybreak, the risk for severe weather returns by afternoon as storms push eastward.

By Monday evening, thunderstorms could cover nearly the entire East Coast. The SPC indicates more than 100 million people from the South to the Northeast are under a level 2 of 5 severe storm risk.

From New Orleans to Boston, major urban areas share this risk, though unique threats might arise in different regions.

Currently, the Northeast faces heightened risk from powerful winds rather than hail or tornadoes. In contrast, from the mid-Atlantic to the Gulf Coast, conditions may promote storms bearing all potential hazards.

Thunderstorms could persist through the night, particularly from the mid-Atlantic to the Northeast, before eventually moving out over the Atlantic Ocean by Tuesday morning.

However, the threat of severe weather won’t dissipate for long. The SPC has identified a broad region from Texas through the Midwest for potential severe thunderstorm activity on Wednesday.