Residents in Tennessee, Arkansas, and Mississippi are bracing for severe weather conditions that have been pummeling the region since Thursday night. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Level 5/5 risk—indicating extreme danger and the possibility of life-threatening conditions.
The vast territory impacted by this severe weather event includes Memphis, the majority of eastern Arkansas, and extends as far south as Fordyce, Arkansas, and Clarksdale, Mississippi. The Mid-South has experienced tornado touchdowns, resulting in significant damage in areas including Senatobia, Slayden, and Early Grove in Mississippi, as well as Selmer, Grand Junction, and Moscow in Tennessee. Tragically, at least one fatality has been confirmed in McNairy County by the Tennessee Emergency Management Agency (TEMA).
The National Weather Service (NWS) in Memphis has emphasized the unusual severity of this situation, characterizing it as a large-scale, destructive event. Their statement warns of “generational flooding,” highlighting the likelihood of substantial river and flash flooding, particularly north of the I-40 corridor.
What to Expect: All Severe Hazards on the Table
Timing: The most intense weather conditions are anticipated to continue into Thursday.
Primary Hazards:
- Tornadoes: Potential for powerful, long-traveling tornadoes, some reaching EF3 intensity or stronger.
- Damaging Winds: Expect wind gusts exceeding 70 mph, especially in intense squall lines.
- Large Hail: Potential for hailstones up to 2 inches, especially from isolated supercell storms.
- Flash Flooding: Expect rapid rainfall accumulation—multiple inches within hours.
These conditions are not standard; they could generate persistent, severe tornadoes, particularly affecting northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and northwest Tennessee.
Ongoing Concerns: Wind, Flood Threats, and Extended Storm Duration
Wind Advisory (7AM – Midnight)
- Sustained winds from the south at 25-30 mph, with gusts potentially reaching 50 mph
- Strong enough to break tree limbs and cause sporadic power outages
Flood Watch (Through Saturday)
- Imminent potential for 10-15 inches of rain, primarily along and north of the I-40
- Flash flooding expected to develop quickly, affecting rivers and creeks significantly
High Risk of Flash Flooding Thursday
With continuous rainfall saturating the ground, flooding is anticipated to become exceedingly dangerous. Certain areas may become unreachable.
7-Day Weather Outlook
- Thursday: Heavy rain persists, shifting the main concern to flooding. Temperature high near 76°F. Chance of rain: 90%.
- Thursday Night: Ongoing rain and thunderstorms with potential for localized severe weather. Low around 67°F, with an 80% chance of precipitation.
- Friday: More storms expected, keeping the flood threat high. High around 84°F, with a 70% chance of storms.
- Friday Night: Storm potential continues. Low near 70°F, with a 50% chance.
- Saturday: Continued storms possibly heavy with ongoing warm, breezy conditions. High around 79°F, and a 90% chance of rain.
- Saturday Night: Heavy rain continues with possible storms. Low around 54°F, with a 90% chance.
- Sunday: Conditions begin to clear with a few morning showers. High near 61°F, with a 20% chance of rain.
- Monday: Sunny and cooler, with a high of 62°F and a low of 42°F.
Key Reminders
- Ensure multiple methods for receiving warnings; don’t rely on one source alone
- Keep devices charged, check batteries, and review emergency plans
- Avoid travel if possible, as conditions will worsen quickly
- This is a high-alert day; take all necessary precautions seriously
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