The Changing Landscape of Migration at the Mexico-U.S. Border

In recent times, there has been a significant decrease in the number of individuals attempting to cross into the U.S. from Mexico. Could this shift help Mexico avoid the tariffs previously threatened by President Trump?

Previously bustling areas at the Mexico-U.S. border, such as Ciudad Juárez, Tijuana, and Matamoros, have seen a stark reduction in migrant activity. Shelters that were once overflowing now host only a few families. Areas that once swarmed with people seeking entry, like parks, hotels, and unused buildings, are now barren.

At the physical border itself, which was once lined with makeshift camps near the towering 30-foot wall, just remnants like dust-covered clothing, abandoned toothpaste tubes, and empty water bottles remain.

“Those days are over,” remarked Rev. William Morton, a missionary who provides meals to migrants at a Ciudad Juárez cathedral. “Crossing has become impossible.”

Kristi Noem, the U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security, revealed last week that Customs and Border Protection apprehended only 200 individuals at the southern border on the previous Saturday—the lowest number in more than 15 years.

President Trump has attributed the decline to his stringent policies on illegal immigration. He also announced plans to send additional combat forces to the border to counter what he describes as an ongoing invasion.

However, analysts suggest that Mexico’s own actions to curb migration over the past year have played a significant role in these results. Beyond the border, Mexico has implemented measures throughout the country. In February, the Trump administration temporarily halted the application of 25-percent tariffs on Mexican exports, pushing Mexico to further limit migration and the spread of fentanyl across the border.

This progress has given Mexico a stronger hand in negotiations than during Trump’s initial tariff threats at the beginning of his presidency.

“Compared to 2019, Mexico now wields new influence,” noted Ariel G. Ruiz Soto and Andrew Selee from the Migration Policy Institute, a nonpartisan think tank. They emphasized that Mexico’s cooperation has become “crucial” to the United States.

Following strict asylum restrictions imposed by President Biden last year, the number of people moving toward the U.S. has sharply decreased. Furthermore, the Mexican government has ramped up its efforts, including setting up checkpoints on migrant routes, enforcing visa requirements, dismantling caravans, and relocating migrants, such as those from Venezuela, to remote areas of southern Mexico, effectively preventing them from reaching the U.S.