Kentucky Derby Predictions: Can Journalism Defy the Odds?

Picking Journalism as your favorite for Saturday’s Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs might be a bold move.

Recent trends don’t favor him.

Although Journalism is the morning-line favorite at 3-1 odds, success has eluded the last six favorites at the Derby. In fact, the latest winners have all been underdogs: Mandaloun at 26-1 in 2021, Rich Strike with staggering odds of 80-1 in 2022, Mage at 15-1 in 2023, and Mystik Dan at 18-1 in 2024.

(Notably, Mandaloun claimed victory due to the disqualification of Medina Spirit, who initially finished first at 12-1 odds.)

This bucks the trend from 2013-2018, where the favorites won six consecutive Derbys.

Explaining this unpredictability, Whit Beckman, the trainer for Flying Mohawk, commented, “Once the gates open, a thousand things can go awry. Sometimes the best horse doesn’t clinch the win. You need one that can navigate the race and endure the distance.”

If you’re considering alternatives to Journalism for Derby glory, here are three top contenders:

Sovereignty
With 5-1 odds, Sovereignty, trained by Bill Mott, is in strong contention for what could be Mott’s second Derby triumph. “Our chances this year are as good as they’ve ever been,” Mott expressed.

Sovereignty clinched victory in the Grade 3 Street Sense Stakes at Churchill Downs last October, a race featuring other Derby hopefuls like Tiztastic and Sandman. His recent performance saw him securing second in the Florida Derby, with a compelling late surge, a style he aims to replicate at the Kentucky Derby.

“He’s a deep closer, which often suggests he has stamina for longer races,” explained Mott. “It’s not a guarantee. They might not maintain the closing drive over a mile and a quarter.

“I hope that’s not the case for him. I’d like to see him sustain his momentum, but proof is in performance. It’s all decided on the first Saturday in May.”

Burnham Square
Similar to Sovereignty, Burnham Square is another late racer to watch, having charged from behind to secure a win at the Blue Grass Stakes.

“I think he has a strong match-up,” asserted trainer Ian Wilkes. “The mile and a quarter should play to our strengths.”

Guided by jockey Brian Hernandez Jr., who triumphed last year with Mystik Dan, Burnham Square is expected to have an impressive build-up. His Beyer Speed Figures have shown a consistent rise: 58, 83, 86, 90, 91, and a notable 96 at the Blue Grass.

“He’s improving with every race,” Wilkes added. “It’s about assembling those victories and progressing towards the Derby.”

Baeza
Making a late entry into the Derby field, Baeza has certainly caught attention.

After breaking his maiden win on February 14, he found early success by leading briefly in the Santa Anita Derby before finishing just three-quarters of a length behind Journalism.

“His performance was outstanding,” noted trainer John Shirreffs. “Even facing challenges like veering wide, once he hit his stride, he was exceptional. Bearing in mind he’s still learning, it was an impressive run.”

Shirreffs previously achieved a Derby win with 50-1 shot Giacomo back in 2005.