Thunder Take Commanding Lead in 2025 NBA Finals

The Oklahoma City Thunder have surged ahead in the 2025 NBA Finals, positioning themselves just one game away from claiming the championship title. After a nail-biting series tied at 2-2, the Thunder overwhelmed the Indiana Pacers in Game 5 on their home turf, thanks to stellar performances by MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (31 points) and Jalen Williams (40 points). With a 3-2 series advantage, victory in the next game would secure the coveted Larry O’Brien Trophy for the Thunder. Meanwhile, the Pacers are grappling with uncertainty over their star guard Tyrese Haliburton’s fitness. He is set to have an MRI on his strained right calf, as reported by ESPN’s Shams Charania. In Game 5, Haliburton managed just four points—the lowest in his playoff career—while adding six assists and seven rebounds. With Game 6 looming in Indianapolis, key questions arise about how the Pacers might push the series to a seventh match and identify critical factors that could influence the outcome.

Concerns about Tyrese Haliburton’s performance and condition are at an all-time high. Tim MacMahon rates it a 10 on the worry scale, emphasizing that the Pacers might struggle offensively against the league’s top defense without a fully fit Haliburton. His influence isn’t confined to scoring, yet a healthy Haliburton elevates the team significantly. Indiana’s playoff record is impressive at 12-3 when Haliburton scores 20 or more points but lags at 8-11 when he falls short. T.J. McConnell can infuse vitality off the bench and score in spurts, as seen in Game 5, but he’s comparable to a third-down NFL running back in needing more than sporadic touches. Jamal Collier echoes this sentiment, assigning a 10. Haliburton is the catalyst for Indiana, and his limitations in Game 5—where he was frequently relegated to the sidelines—suggest a bleak outlook if his effectiveness doesn’t dramatically improve. Chris Herring assigns an 8, arguing that the real issue lies in Haliburton’s injuries during crucial moments rather than his subpar Game 5. Despite poor showings from Haliburton and Andrew Nembhard, along with significant turnovers, the Pacers nearly clinched the win towards the end. Herring stresses that Haliburton’s compromised mobility in Game 6 raises alarm bells. Even with inspired performances from McConnell, two consecutive wins seem elusive without a healthy Haliburton. Tim Bontemps agrees, pointing out that the situation is dire as Haliburton appears far from full strength. Zach Kram concurs, explaining that Monday’s performance was marred not by typical struggles like a shooting slump but by a debilitating calf injury obstructing his agility.

For the Pacers to prolong the series, Chris Herring suggests it’s worthwhile for Coach Rick Carlisle to extend T.J. McConnell’s playing time as the lead guard, especially if Haliburton falters. Even though playing Haliburton might seem advantageous, given the NBA Finals’ stakes, significant underperformance makes the decision murky. Regardless of Haliburton’s condition, minimizing turnovers can drastically improve their chances. A terrible stretch in the fourth quarter where they surrendered eight consecutive points due to four turnovers allowed the Thunder to stretch a lead from eight to 16 points rapidly. Tim Bontemps notes that controlling three aspects—bench scoring, points from turnovers, and 3-point shooting—could serve Indiana well. These elements are interlinked; better ball management, successful 3-point shots, and outscoring Oklahoma City from the bench would indicate that Indiana is dictating the pace. The Thunder excel in forcing turnovers, executing fast breaks, and landing open shots. Nipping these strengths in the bud will be crucial for Indiana’s success. Zach Kram underscores that Indiana must score at least 110 points to secure a win, as demonstrated by their 14-0 playoff record when reaching this target versus 0-7 when not. It’s a straightforward strategy: Indiana’s dynamic offense has been the backbone all season, and scoring prolific points often correlates directly with their victories.